UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane - Betting Guide - 01/22/22

There's a few plays I'm going to make tonight and I'll post them below for your consideration. If deciding to tail or fade them, feel free to jump over to the predictions articles which have a bit more detail on each fight.

As per most PPV cards, the lines have been adjusted for all of these fights to a pretty stabilized position. There's just simply more people betting these cards and there's usually more information available because most of the fighters are well known on PPVs. This one however has plenty of newcomers so let's dive in.

Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo

We've seen this fight twice already and it was both fighter's most recent matches. This really is the best tool an analyst can use because so many of the unknowns get brought into the light. For me, Moreno's toughness and fearlessness has seemed to render Figueiredo's one shot kill power severely weakened. And if Figueiredo can't score that one shot finish, he'll need to at least land those shots to steal the rounds. I just don't see Moreno slowing down even if he absorbs some of those. To make matters worse for the former champion, Moreno's scrambling and grappling surpasses Figueiredo's. I think Moreno is going to be even more confident after already finishing the Brazilian.

Figueiredo is also not the youngest flyweight in the world but I don't really seeing that big a critical factor. Reason being he is posting pictures lately of being absolutely shredded with no body fat during fight week. His illness last time out and weight cut struggles aren't a factor here so we will definitely see a tough Figueiredo. However, it's very possible that his scary punching power comes from ballooning back up after a weight cut. If that's the case, being shredded ahead of time may rob him of his greatest asset.

In any event, at 1.555, sportsbooks are giving Moreno a 64.3% implied probability. I'm fine with that but I wouldn't be crazy about going much lower.

Kay Hansen & Jack Della Maddalena

Parlaying these two will get you close to even money. As mentioned in the prediction articles, Hansen's opponent's size is a bit concerning but seeing her hang with Erin Blanchfield at 125 gives me enough confidence to make the play. Jasaduvicus is making her debut and has atrocious striking defense. On the back leg of this, Maddalena just really impressed me in his last fight. It is hard to get a read on his opponent with the limited footage but it's clear he fought sub par competition. In a straight up striking match I like Maddalena's edges in technicality to win the day.

Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry (Over 2.5 Rounds)

Despite the huge mismatch on the moneyline, I actually like this to go to the decision. Nothing fancy about it, Henry has never been finished and seems well rounded enough to survive against Barcelos IMHO. Barcelos is also very measured and methodical so we could see some large breaks in the action as he waits for Henry to over commit.

Tony Gravely by Decision

Gravely's opponent has never been finished and I just feel like if Gravely gets the win then it's going to go the distance. The odds jump from 1.43 ML to 2.55 for decision and I feel there's some value there.

Other Odds & Ends

Although I'm not playing these, I strongly considered Trevin Giles because of the price and inexperience of his opponent. Ultimately, the new weight class, him coming off his first ever KO defeat, and athleticism of his opponent gave me pause.

Keep an eye on that Frevola fight as well. He's probably going to lose the first round and if his opponent heads back to the stool looking gassed like he did in his Contender Series fight, it could be a good live bet opportunity.

Lastly, I bet on Gane when the line opened and he was plus money but I don't feel good about advising it at the current price. I certainly wouldn't blame anyone for taking Ngannou, the hardest puncher on the planet, to get a KO which is paying about 2.40. Or even a 1st round blitzing that is paying nearly 4 to 1! Certainly value there but we are going to leave that one out of our current tally.

Moreno - 2U to win 1.11U
Hansen & Maddalena - 2U to win 1.88U
Barcelos/Henry (Over 2.5) - 1.5U to win 1.15U
Gravely by Decision - 0.5U to win .75U