UFC 271: Betting Guide - 02/12/22

Last Card Recap

A much better showing last time around as we almost swept the board. Our big bet came in with Dawadu and Rakhmonov performing exactly as expected. Strickland and Almeida also widely outclassed their opponents to cash our more safe parlay. And both props came in with Davis surviving several armbars to comfortably win a decision, and Rowe finishing a chinny, Jason Witt inside the distance.

The one blemish was Miles Johns putting up one of his worst performances which wrecked our last bet. Brendan Allen obliterated Sam Alvey on the back half of that parlay which is a little bit of solace I suppose. All in all, it was a healthy 3.5 unit gain on the night.

I am disappointed I didn’t recommend betting the only true dog I picked to win in Nick Maximov. The confidence level was just quite a bit lower than the other plays I recommended. Live and learn. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling.

Odds for the Card

I’ve written about the athletic commission in Houston being atrocious in the past. This has caused me to err on the side of caution when betting fights that take place there. Having looked back at the past couple events though, it looks like the decisions have all been scored correctly so I have cautious optimism that things have improved. Sal D’Amato, who’s present on all our Vegas cards, has honestly become a way bigger liability than all of the Houston commission combined (seriously, he scored that last main event for Hermansson).

I see this event as largely being a dog or pass set up. A lot of the favorites are a bit too favored in my opinion and betting them comes with a higher risk than normal for fighters at that price. If you read the preview article, I mentioned that a lot of the fights are in the mid to higher weight classes, so there’s a big chance for a lot of finishes. The one flyweight bout also has two guys who finish fights all the time. If fights are going to end inside the distance all night, I see the risk being added to some of the heavy favorites here. So dog or pass strategy engaged.

Douglas Silva de Andrade (3.000)

This is one where the odds should be way closer and I see a lot of value on Andrade’s side. Morozov will most likely get Andrade down at some point, but getting planted on his butt hasn’t stopped Andrade from winning in the past. There’s also a huge difference in athleticism here in Andrade’s favor. I’m not shocked that Morozov is the favorite by any means as he defeated Taha, who on paper looks like an Andrade archetype. But I’m willing to place a value bet here as I’m capping Andrade’s chances at a deal better than the 36.4% implied probability given by the books.

Jacob Malkoun (1.980)

I see value on Malkoun’s side at this price. Bookies are giving his undefeated opponent a bump in the line on this one, combined with the ugly instant KO loss Malkoun suffered a couple fights back. However, Malkoun has shown that this loss wasn’t going to set him back as he came out and dominated Alhassan last time out (a fighter who seems an awful lot like Dobson). Even though both guys don’t have many pro fights, it’s Malkoun who has a pro boxing record and ADCC grappling credentials. He probably doesn’t win this fight 10/10 times, but I like him to win it most times.

Derek Brunson (2.600)

I think this fight should be a lot closer to a pick 'em. Cannonier’s takedown defense has looked sparkling as of late but he hasn’t really fought anyone with Brunson’s pedigree or even size. Historically, Brunson has been a risky investment because we didn’t know what strategy he was going to come in with. Those question marks have been removed as he’s rededicated himself to wrestling. I don’t think he’s going to have an easy time getting or keeping Cannonier down by any stretch, but I think his persistence will win him enough control time. There is significant risk here as Cannonier holds dynamite in his hands but he’s on the lower volume side. Brunson is worth a look.

Matt Schnell (4.500)

Complete flyer pick. I picked Perez to win in the prediction article but when you look at this line, 4.5 is way too wide. Yes, Perez is better and will have the edge in striking and wrestling but if Schnell stays conscious, he’ll have some success on the feet as well. Perez being on top of Schnell is not a great position either as Schnell’s sneaky bottom submission game plays very well with Perez’s readiness to tap out at the first signs of trouble.

Edit: anddddddddddd the bout just got cancelled for the 4th time. Wow.

Grishin/Lawrence (2.140)

We won’t go the full dog route. I have decent confidence in both of these guys prevailing. Parlaying them together gets you even money. Was on the fence recommending Bobby Green in exchange for Grishin here (Knight’s power is scary).

Edit: It appears that Knight missed weight by 12 pounds and this is at heavyweight. Do with that information what you must. I’ll add Lawrence/Green as a backup.

Tai Tuivasa vs Derrick Lewis - Over 1.5 Rounds (2.330)

Did you just lose all respect for me? I know this one is a bit out there and I don’t expect anyone to tail it. Both guys have a ridiculous knock out rate and both guys have been finished by strikes - pretty good reason for an early finish. But how many times do we see two powerful knockout artists with all the promos saying “don’t blink” and then it reaches the final horn. I’m thinking both guys have a healthy respect for each other’s power and we may see a very lengthy feeling out process. Also, go ahead and take a peek through Lewis’ past knockouts and you’ll probably be surprised to see the Daukaus KO being the only one in the 1st round in the last 5 years. Recently his record is littered with fights that have made it 2 rounds or more. Tuivasa also sees the second round more times than not. Anyway, a bit of a gut-feeling bet. Feel free to fade or avoid, I'm going to include it in the totals for this one.

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Overview

Douglas Silva de Andrade ML (3.000) - 1U Wager to Win 2U

Jacob Malkoun ML (1.961) - 1U Wager to Win 1U

Derek Brunson ML (2.600) - 1U Wager to Win 1.6U

Grishin/Lawrence Parlay (2.140) - 1U Wager to Win 1.U

Green/Lawrence Parlay (2.410) - 1U Wager to Win 1.4U

Tai Tuivasa vs Derrick Lewis - Over 1.5 Rounds (2.350) - 1U Wager to Win 1.4U

2022 Overall

Bet Record: 6-3

Profit/Loss/ROI: 8.3%/1.4U

Picks Record: 20-14