UFC Fight Night 172 Prelims Odds and Prediction

UFC Fight Night 172 Undercard Preview

By Scott Reichel

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Don'Tale “Kong” Mayeswill be looking for the third UFC victory of his career on Saturday night. After experiencing some success in other organizations, Mayes has had mixed results in the UFC as he has split each of his first four fights. To make matters worse, he enters this fight off a third-round submission loss to Ciryl Gane at UFC Fight Night 162. Mayes is a solid striker but his ground defense is a bit suspect which could be an issue for this fight.

Rodrigo “Zé Colmeia” Nascimento will be making his UFC fight card debut in this fight after earning a spot with the organization through the Dana White’s Contender Series. Nascimento is known for his elite submission offense as five of his seven victories have come via submission. Now, he will be looking to potentially move up the UFC rankings as well as maintaining his undefeated record with another solid performance on Saturday.

This fight can truly go either way since both fighters specialize in different areas. Mayes loves to inflict punishment in the standup while Nascimento loves to take his opponents to the ground so whichever fighter can dictate the pace should be able to win this fight. Mayes does have a serious reach advantage which is concerning but I think that Nascimento should be able to take it to the ground at least once where he will cause Mayes to tap out.

Prediction: Nascimento Via Submission (+200 Fanduel)

Darren Elkins vs. Nate Landwehr

Darren “The Damage” Elkinshas been a member of the UFC for a long time and it has unfortunately gone pretty poorly as of late. Elkins entered the UFC in 2010 and it appears that the mileage might have caught up to him now that he is 35 years old. Elkins has lost each of his last three fights and it appears that he is desperate to keep his career alive with the organization so he should be very motivated to put in a solid performance for this bout.

Unlike his opponent, Nate “The Train” Landwehr has had little to no experience with the organization in his career. He entered the UFC in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak before losing his UFC debut to Herbert Burns via first-round knockout. Now, Landwehr will be looking for his first UFC victory on Saturday night. The only question left is if this stage is too bright for him after such a lackluster performance the first time around.

Overall, I think that this fight should be very close throughout. Both fighters are desperate for a victory and I expect them to lay it all on the line tonight as a result. Elkins should be able to use his experience to outsmart Landwehr in some exchanges but I am genuinely concerned about how much he truly has left in the tank after having to endure so much damage over the years. However, Elkins has gone to a decision 16 times while Landwehr has been in six decisions so I think that betting the total is probably the smartest move.

Prediction: Fight To Go The Distance (-146 Fanduel)

Cortney Casey vs. Mara Romero Borella

Cortney “Cast Iron” Caseyhas been pretty underwhelming lately with the organization. She has lost four of her last six fights with all four losses coming via decision. Now, she will be looking to get back on track against another struggling female on Saturday. Casey has the same amount of knockout and submission wins so she is pretty well-rounded but that has not translated to results over the past four years. Perhaps she will be able to figure it out before the organization decides to move on without her.

Mara Romero Borella has also been struggling a bit as of late. Despite having a 12-7 record, Borella has lost three of her last four fights so she has had issues adjusting to better competition since joining the UFC in 2017. In addition, four of her seven losses have come via knockout so there are some legitimate questions regarding her chin heading into this fight. If she plans on coming out on top, she will need to do her best to avoid getting caught by some heavy shots in the standup.

Oddsmakers seem to think that Casey is the better fighter and I personally disagree. Even though she has more UFC experience, she has been very underwhelming lately and has been awful at winning decisions which is very concerning. Casey enters this fight having lost six of her eight decisions while Borella enters this fight having won five of her seven decisions so I think that there is some value on the dog here considering the fact that these two fighters have had dramatically different results from the scorecards over their respective careers.

Prediction: Mara Romero Borella Via Decision (+250 FoxBet)

Giga Chikadze vs. Mike Davis

Giga Chikadze enters this fight in great form as he is in the midst of a four-fight winning streak. After spending some time in the Gladiator Challenge, Chikadze finally made the jump to the UFC back in 2019 and he has been undefeated ever since. However, both victories were by the slimmest of margins as he won both contests by split decision. Now, he will be looking for a much more dominant performance in Florida on Saturday.

Similarly to his opponent, Mike “Beast Boy” Davis” will also be making his third appearance in the UFC on Saturday. After losing in his UFC debut to Gilbert Burns via submission, he managed to bounce back with a knockout victory against Thomas Gifford. Davis is a bit of a knockout specialist as seven of his eight career wins have come via knockout and he will be looking to add to his collection in this one.

This fight seems to be very close on paper as they each possess skills in specific areas. Chikadze has two submission victories so he has a decent edge on the ground while Davis has seven knockout victories so he should have the edge in the standup. I think that this fight could go either way but Davis has a lot of power for Chikadze to properly deal with and I think that he should be able to do enough damage en route to a victory.

Prediction: Mike Davis Via Decision (+170 Fanduel)

Anthony Hernandez vs. Kevin Holland

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandezhas flown under the radar so far in his brief MMA career. However, at the age of 26, he can change that with a solid performance at UFC Fight Night 172. Hernandez has had mixed results with the UFC as he has split each of his first two fights but he will have the opportunity to get himself a winning record with the organization on Saturday. Hernandez is known for his elite ground game as six of his seven victories have come via submission and he will be looking to make Holland tap out in this one.

Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland has been slightly above average since he joined the UFC in 2018. Ever since winning a contract from his performance on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, he has won three of his first five fights with the organization. However, he did lose to Brendan Allen in his last fight via second-round submission. Now, he will be looking to escape that same fate against another quality submission artist in this matchup.

Oddsmakers expect this fight to be very close and I feel the same way. Holland has a huge advantage in the standup department and he will be looking to keep this fight on the feet while Hernandez will be looking to get this fight to the ground as soon as possible. I expect Holland to have some early success but I think that Hernandez will eventually find an opening and use it en route to another submission victory.

Prediction: Anthony Hernandez Via Submission (+500 Fanduel)

Matt Brown vs. Miguel Baeza

Matt“The Immortal” Brown has definitely earned his nickname with the organization since it seems that he has been around forever. Brown joined the UFC in 2008 and has fought consistently within it ever since. However, his results have not always been positive as he has a 22-16 record in his career. Brown’s career appeared to be over after he lost three straight fights in 2016 but he managed to win each of his last two fights in order to keep his career alive. Now, Brown will be looking to extend this winning streak with a much younger opponent up next.

Unlike his opponent, Miguel “Caramel Thunder” Baeza is looking to become the face of the next generation of UFC fighters. Baeza is just 27 years old and he still boasts an undefeated record through seven career MMA fights. However, he has only fought once on an actual UFC card so he has yet to truly prove to others just how dominant he can be within the organization. With a matchup against a UFC veteran up next, Baeza should be able to showcase just how talented he is.

For this fight, I truly have no idea who is going to win. It is one thing to be undefeated against lesser competition but it is another thing to stand toe to toe with Matt Brown for three full rounds. Brown’s issues have come against submission artists in his career and Baeza does not specialize in that area so I expect this fight to turn into a slugfest in the standup which makes the underdog rather attractive in this spot.

Prediction: Matt Brown Via KO or Decision (+170 Fanduel)