UFC Fight Night 172: Rogerio Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes

UFC Fight Night 172: Rogerio Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes

Our second UFC event of the week will get off to a powerful start when two heavyweights enter the octagon. Both men are signees from Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and will look to score their first win in the promotion. This fight could boost the career of one of these men forward while the other will have their back against the wall in terms of their UFC future.

Rogerio “Ze Colmeia” Nascimento (7-0)

After an impressive win in the Contender Series, Rogerio Nascimento will make his UFC debut this Saturday in Jacksonville. In that fight, we saw the undefeated Brazilian prospect blow through Michal Martinek, securing an arm triangle in the first round. An encouraging thing from Nascimento on the ground is that despite the five submissions on his record, he does not force the finish. At the UFC level, position over submission is always an encouraging sign and Nascimento is not one to give up top position in an attempt to toss on a low percentage sub. He is content to control his opponent and soften them up with punches while waiting for a submission to present itself.

On the feet, Nascimento is no kickboxing champion, but he is not a liability either. He has extremely powerful punches and kicks which set up his takedowns. He is also defensively conscious in the pocket and is not one to shoot an ill-advised takedown. The Brazilian uses his power punching to push his opponent backward to the cage, resulting in a clinch so he can work for a takedown. For a heavyweight prospect, Rogerio Nascimento seems to have a reasonable fight IQ which should serve him well on Saturday.

Don’Tale “Lord Kong” Mayes (7-3)

An absolutely gigantic heavyweight, Don’Tale Mayes is likely to be a problem in the first round. He is a pure power puncher and can put anyone in the world to sleep if one of his shots lands on the chin. While both the technical striking and conditioning on Mayes has improved from what we saw on the Contender Series, Mayes will still have trouble with more technical strikers. Cyril Gane, an elite kickboxer, pieced up Mayes from the outside early in their fight, taking away the danger of Don’Tale Mayes. Luckily for Mayes, Nascimento is not even close to a striking technician on the outside. This means that Mayes can throw free with his power shots without concern of being outpointed.

While Mayes will certainly have the advantage on the feet, he is outmatched on the mat. His record shows three submissions, but all of those were opponents tapping to strikes. This says a lot about the power of Mayes, but not about his ability to be effective on the ground. In that Cyril Gane fight, he was submitted by a heel hook and appeared to have very little idea of how to defend it. Granted, Mayes was hurt to the body, but when an ankle lock is on its way in, one would expect a UFC fighter to instinctively roll in the proper direction. All signs indicate that if this one hits the ground, Mayes could be in big trouble against a high-level grappler.

Prediction

This is the age old “striker vs. grappler” matchup. Mayes will be a dangerous man in the first round and has a very realistic chance of knocking Nascimento out cold. With that being said, Nascimento has not been knocked out yet and does not look uncomfortable on the feet. He has no problem waiting for the takedown to come and there should be plenty of opportunities given the lack of movement in Mayes’s game. Unless Mayes gets the early knockout, we could see Nascimento blow through him on the ground for another submission win.

I see Rogerio Nascimento as around a -150 favorite in this matchup so I am glad to bet him at plus money. As is the case with all low-level heavyweight fights, literally anything can happen so it is important to keep the bet small in fights like this. Still, the Brazilian has more refined tools and more ways to win this fight.

Pick: Rogerio Nascimento (+100)