UFC on ESPN 27: Undercard Betting Guide & Predictions - 7/23/21
All odds are mean odds taken from www.bestfightodds.com
Articles written before weigh-ins.
Punahele Soriano vs.
Brendan Allen
There was a point in Allen’s last fight with Roberson where Roberson switched stances to southpaw and landed a telegraphed, slow hook that connected with no problem. He’s lucky Roberson doesn’t have a ton of power. Soriano, a natural southpaw who’s accustomed to throwing hooks with bad intentions will most likely find the mark. Allen however, has a way deeper breadth of competition and will certainly be Soriano’s toughest test to date. If Allen gets this fight to the mat then Soriano will be in a bad world. I’m banking on the fact that Soriano has shown he’ll make a downed opponent stand up when he’s hurt instead of diving into guard and getting subbed. I’ll combine that with the fact Allen will always come out looking to bang for the first few minutes which is a disastrous idea against Soriano.
Pick: Soriano
Bet: Soriano @ -109
Nassourdine Imavov vs.
Ian Heinisch
I pick every Ian Heinisch incorrectly so you’ve been warned. This is a crazy big step down in competition for Heinisch who is used to fighting guys like Gastelum, Brunson, Ferreira, Carlos Junior, etc. On paper he should run away with this. But there’s a little voice in the back of my head reminding me of Imavov relentlessly pressing Jordan Williams to the cage in one of his more recent fights. Shut up conscience, I’m going down with the ship.
Pick: Heinisch
Bet: Parlay (see below) or Hienisch by decision @ +129
Randy Costa vs.
Adrian Yanez
This should be one of, if not the, best fight on the card. Two prospects who have been knocking out people often and are relatively new to MMA. Both guys have power with Yanez holding edges in the offense and defense. He also has ridiculous composure and is pretty committed to his counter punching style. That just seems like a good recipe to beat Costa who is quite aggressive. Not recommending betting either guy though just in case composure turns into complacency and Costa’s 4 ounce gloves finds the mark. Instead, I think we’ll take advantage of the over here which is set at 1.5 rounds. There is a solid chance that Yanez’s composure/counter punching doesn’t get the job done and both guys have never been knocked out.
Pick: Yanez
Bet: Over 1.5 rounds @ -126
Julio Arce vs.
Andre Ewell
Two southpaw bantamweights coming off losses, although Arce is making the drop from featherweight. We’ve seen Arce lean on his wrestling in the past and honestly it’s the easiest path to victory for this one. We’ve seen Ewell get taken down pretty regularly. If Arce stays at range then he could succumb to a point striking battle with the 5” reach advantage in Ewell’s favor but. Ewell has just been such a disappointment for me to take a flyer so we’ll stick with Arce.
Pick: Arce
Bet: Parlay (see below)
Sijara Eubanks vs.
Elise Reed
The fourth fighter on the card to drop a weight class, Sjara Eubanks (dropping from bantamweight to flyweight) takes on CFFC strawweight champ, Elise Reed. Reed, is moving up to flyweight on short notice for this one and making her UFC debut. I’ve seen Reed get caught in a few submission attempts and manage to survive which is good I guess. I just can’t see her dealing with the physicality of Eubanks for this one. Even still, Eubanks has found ways to woefully disappoint in the past. Enough so that I’ll pick her but steer clear of betting that low value line.
Pick: Eubanks
Bet: Pass
Diana Belbita vs.
Hannah Goldy
Just watched both of these girls’ last couple fights and I’m sad now. Here’s how it's seemingly going to go: Goldy will be on the back foot close to the cage for the entire fight, pawing out jabs (seriously 170 strikes thrown in her last fight and she landed at like 34%). Belbita will engage her fairly wildly and both girls will land some shots and this will end in a clinch against the cage for extended periods. That will repeat every couple minutes for three rounds and the judges will reward a split decision out and no one will care or be tuning in. Goldy is a freak athletic specimen (and pulled out of several fights over the past couple years - off cycles not going as planned?) so you can bet she will have the strength advantage in those clinches. But I’ll go with Belbita anyway as the fighter in the center of the cage should win the fight according to the judges if all other criteria are even.
Pick: Belbita
Bet: I bet that Goldy’s OnlyFans account makes her more money than fighting ever will.....Pass
Betting Recap:
Singles
Soriano
Costa/Yanez Over 1.5 Rounds
Heinisch by Decision
Parlay
Heinisch/Arce
To view the main card breakdown article, click here.
