UFC on ESPN+ 59: Betting Guide - 2/19/22

Last Card Recap

Another profitable card for us. Our biggest dog, Douglas da Silva Andrade, came through big time with a come-from-behind victory in the 2nd round to cash at 3.00. Jacob Malkoun also performed exactly as predicted to get us a fairly easy unit of profit. Then our safe parlay padder in Lawrence outclassed his opponent for 2 and a half rounds before turning it into a sweaty one when he got dropped late. Nevertheless, he got the W and then Bobby Green and Maxim Grishin also performed exactly as expected to net a couple more units.

Two blemishes on the tips but I mentioned one of them came with some serious risk in Tuivasa/Lewis over 1.5 rounds. The first round was fairly clinch heavy and also had the feeling out process I put some faith in. Both guys survived the isolated bursts to make it into the second. We needed about another minute but unfortunately, the boys started swangin’ and bangin’ as advertised and Tuivasa knocked Lewis dead shortly thereafter. The last blemish was Derek Brunson getting KO’d by Cannonier. If you watched that fight, then you’ll see why I tipped it with Brunson having wrestling success and nearly getting the finish in the first round, only for Cannonier to be saved by the bell. I can’t be too upset over Cannonier’s come-from-behind win since we were on the right side of that fate earlier with Silva. In any event, we came away with another 3.5 units of profit. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going.

Odds for the Card

Ugh. I’m not liking the look of a lot of these lines. There are a few favorites that have some value though so we can make those work.

Jessica-Rose Clark (1.602/-166)

As mentioned in the prediction article, Jessica-Rose Clark is very well rounded and her opponent is still pretty green. What I like about Clark here is she has been coming in with good game plans all the way back to her first pro fight. I’m sure she is aware of the best route to victory and I’m fairly confident she will execute it. If she does end up getting judo tossed early, she seems to have the ability to make in-fight adjustments. Egger seems really durable so I don’t hate the Clark by decision line getting you up to 2.25/+125. But I think I’ll risk a bit more to keep a potential finish in the equation.

David Onama (1.730/-137)

I’m getting the feeling Benitez may be on the downward side of the prime bell curve. He got caught clean and dropped early in his last fight and his striking accuracy was pretty dreadful. Onama will hold youth, speed, size, and range, and I like all of those factors to win a pure striking match against Benitez.

Diana Belbita (1.833/-120)

I think this fight plays out entirely on the feet and I like the more active/volume striker to prevail. De Paula hasn’t done much to impress in her UFC career and her most ideal route to victory is a big counter shot finish. I like Belbita’s durability enough to be able to withstand that and go on to outpoint her across 3 rounds. I feel like de Paula struggles against pressure as well which is something Belbita has in spades. Feels like this should be closer to some of the other heavier favorites on the card.

Daukaus/Hill (1.97/-103)

The ole co-main event/main event special. Pickett’s main advantage over Daukaus is going to be size and athleticism but we’ve seen him not make use of it in the past. I like Daukaus to exploit his striking and grappling edges throughout the fight.

Johnny Walker has been coming out as different versions of himself over the past few fights but I like Hill’s come-forward fight style to bring the old wreckless Walker back out. And if that happens, I like Hill’s chances a lot as he’s technical and powerful. I’m not totally convinced that Walker has no chin, but the battle of striking durability is unquestionably in Hill’s favour. I don’t really see much value in the Hill ITD line myself but it’s probably a prop that will see a lot of action. The value on both guys are definitely on the thin side so will limit the size of the bet for that one.

Loose Change

I’m not making this play but wanted to point it out for anyone looking to back the long time veteran, Jim Miller (of course if you are betting him you are probably already very aware of this):

-Jim Miller to get a finish is at 3.85/+285. A round 1 finish by Miller is at 7.00/+600. If he’s going to win, it’s most likely going to be a finish (and early) so might as well take the extra value.

This is not financial advice, practice good bankroll management and gamble responsibly.

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Overview

Jessica-Rose Clark ML - 1.6U Wager to Win 1U

David Onama ML- 1U Wager to Win 0.7U

Diana Belbita ML - 1U Wager to Win 0.8U

Daukaus/Hill Parlay - 0.5U Wager to Win 0.5 U

2022 Overview

Bet Record - 10-5

Profit/ROI: +4.9 U/25.2%

Picks: 31-17 (64.6%)