Which Conferences will play College Football in the fall?
As a bettor, it’s tough to figure out whether college football or the NFL will play an abbreviated season or a full season due to COVID-19. Most rational people understand the paranoia that the college presidents and athletic directors feel.
In the case of the NFL, the players agreed to play under certain conditions and safety protocols. There will be no preseason and training camp has opened with mainly conditioning and weight training, since players were not able to get together safely as a group until recent weeks.
The NFL will attempt to start the season on time, as of today, Aug. 12, on Thursday, Sept. 10 with Houston facing Kansas City.
College football’s schedule is now up in the air with the Pac-12, MAC and Big 10 canceling the fall and hoping to play in the spring. That’s going to be a difficult thing, especially in the MAC and Big 10, considering the fact that the weather will make it nearly unplayable in February and March in places like Minnesota, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. But, if they play a limited schedule and start practice in March, where most schools have indoor facilities, they should be able to play 2/3 of a normal season and possibly a conference championship.
However, a playoff or some kind of bowl situation in June would make no sense, considering the fact that the players would have to turn around and get ready for summer practice in less than two months. Football is a gruelling sport and players need months to let the body heal. That would be the argument to not play football in the spring, but then there’s the money issue.
If Michigan State, for example, doesn’t play football this season, they will lose as much as $85 million. The school is already cutting salary in football and basketball, including head coaches Tom Izzo (basketball) and Mel Tucker (football). If they don’t play football, some sports could get cut. That’s because football drives most athletic departments at Power Five schools. MSU athletic director Bill Beekman said that television contracts bring in around $45 million total and ticket sales around $25 million per year. If they play in the spring and there is a vaccine, they could recoup most of that money, even in an 8-game or 10-game schedule.
This is likely the case at most Power Five schools, but you also have players who are affected by the cancellations. If the ACC had decided to cancel their football season, Clemson junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence would have not played in the spring. That’s because he would have had to get ready for the NFL Draft in late April, by working out for scouts and attending the combine in February in Indianapolis.
Most players who might be first-round picks in the Pac-12 or Big 10 and are draft-eligible (at least three years in college) have to make a decision and that’s to either skip the season or risk playing.
The good news for sports fans and bettors is that appears that the ACC, SEC and Big 12 will play the season in the fall. The Big 12 already made their decision on Tuesday and has decided to open the season in late September. The SEC was expected to play, but their decision may have hinged on whether the Big 12 was going to join them.
That means the ACC, Big 12 and SEC are all expected to play as long as the coronavirus doesn’t get completely out of control in the South, Southwest and Northeast (Syracuse, B.C.). Add the potential of the Sun Belt, Conference USA and American Athletic Conference and we could be seeing about half the colleges play in the fall and close to half in the spring.
The other issue is the transfer portal, with players from schools like the Big 10 and Pac-12 transferring to schools that are playing in the fall. Nebraska is one of the two Big 10 teams that voted to play (12-2 against playing in the fall reportedly). They would love to play in the fall and possibly re-join the Big 12 for just one season. That’s doesn’t seem a likely scenario, so you could see many Cornhuskers jump ship.
