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Last updated Aug 23, 11:01 PM EDT
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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (921) Oakland Athletics at (922) Los Angeles Angels: Moneyline | 3:15pm EDT - Jun 28/2026 |
The PLAY: Oakland Athletics -118 Action
ATHLETICS -122 Angels
The Athletics are live here because this is more about line value and matchup flaws than trusting Aaron Civale blindly.
Civale’s recent form is ugly, but the market has not ignored it. Even with a 9.43 ERA over his last five starts and a 12.27 ERA over his last three, Oakland is still laying a short road price. That says the number is being driven by how vulnerable Los Angeles is on the other side.
Sam Aldegheri is not a comfortable underdog arm. His 2026 ERA is 5.47, his WHIP is 1.50, and the last three-start split is worse: 8.53 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 14 hits and seven walks in 12.2 innings. That is a lot of traffic against an Oakland lineup projected for 5.50 runs.
The A’s have also had the better season profile. Oakland is 40-43 while the Angels are 35-49, and the money loss gap is substantial: Athletics -176 compared to Angels -731. Los Angeles is still five games worse despite the recent 5-2 stretch.
Head-to-head also leans Oakland. The A’s are 6-4 against the Angels this season and have already won four of six in Anaheim, including 14-6, 6-5, 3-2, and 9-3 results. They have repeatedly shown they can score in this park against this staff.
The injury report is another edge. Oakland is missing important bats, but the Angels’ list is deeper and more damaging, led by Mike Trout on the IL along with multiple catchers, infielders, and bullpen arms. That matters in a high-total game where depth and late offense can decide it.
The bullpen comparison is the main caution, as the Angels’ pen has been much better statistically. But Oakland’s available bullpen has arms rested, while Los Angeles shows no available bullpen innings in the Covers table. If Aldegheri gives them only four or five innings, that becomes a real stress point.
Bottom line: Civale is not the reason to back Oakland. The case is that the A’s are the better overall team, have controlled this head-to-head, face an erratic young starter with poor recent form, and are priced only around -120. ActionNetwork power ratings has this line at -139
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Consultant Bio
Joe Duffy: From Prodigy to Sports Handicapping Pioneer
Joe Duffy has been handicapping sports literally since childhood. Growing up in suburban Philadelphia, he became fascinated with picking winners against the spread when the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a season-long contest featuring professional handicappers selecting five NFL games each week.
Using the same point spreads as the pros, young Joe submitted his own “armchair picks.” In his very first year, he outperformed every official contestant by several games—a moment that sparked a lifelong obsession with sports betting.
Throughout his pre-teen years, Duffy continued as a “fantasy handicapper,” consistently finishing near or at the top of the contest. During grade school and high school, he was a devoted listener to Mickey Charles’ weekend handicapping shows on WCAU-AM, where legends like Mike Lee and Lem Banker shared their theories. True to his studious nature, Duffy even took notes, absorbing every detail like a sponge.
It was no coincidence that years later, he got his first break in the industry with Charles’ company. While paying his way through college, Duffy began working as a Scorephone announcer for Dial Sports 976 Scorephones. At the same time, he honed his broadcasting skills as a play-by-play announcer for California University of Pennsylvania’s radio and TV stations.
Upon graduation, Duffy immediately transitioned into a full-time handicapper and scorephone announcer for the toll-free score services. There, he studied directly under two legendary mentors: Ray Scott, the iconic broadcaster who won the Pete Rozelle Radio-Television Award from the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000, and Hank Stram, the Super Bowl–winning coach inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2003. Both played a major role in shaping Duffy’s career.
Duffy’s trajectory continued upward as he became General Manager of the national Freescoreboard scorephones. During this era, fellow announcers nicknamed him “Mr. March” for his dominance during college basketball’s conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament. That moniker evolved into “The Lord of the Big Dance,” a title he still carries proudly, having posted a winning March Madness every year since 1998.
Over the decades, Duffy has become one of the most published voices in sports betting strategy. He has written extensively, hosted and guested on podcasts and videos, and earned national recognition as a featured expert. His insights have appeared on ESPN, Bleacher Report, and across countless TV, radio, and digital platforms worldwide.
Today, Joe Duffy stands as the leading handicapper in advanced analytics, leveraging statistically significant computer systems and proprietary betting formulas to deliver consistent results. What began as a childhood passion has evolved into a career of unmatched credibility, longevity, and influence in the sports handicapping industry.