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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (131) San Francisco 49ers at (132) Indianapolis Colts | 8:15pm EST - Dec 22/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Under +46 (-110)
This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER.
I see the Colts' defense stepping up in a big way in this crucial contest for Indianapolis.
The Colts are 8-6 straight up overall and 6-1 straight up at home. Indianapolis is also an above-average 4-2-1 ATS at home.
The Colts, though, enter desperate to snap a four-game slide after falling just short by a score of 18-16 in Seattle last week in Philip Rivers' debut under center.
San Francisco comes to town 10-4 SU and 6-2 SU and ATS on the road.
After four straight wins, and with consecutive home games upcoming against Chicago and Seattle, I believe the 49ers could easily be caught looking ahead and a tiny bit complacent.
I think we need to call into question San Francisco's four latest victories as well.
The 49ers fell 42-26 at home to the Rams in Week 10, then beat Arizona 41-22 as 3.5-point favorites, then a 20-9 victory over Carolina as 7.5-point favorites, then a 26-8 win at Cleveland as 5.5-point favorites, and then last week at home they pulled away for the 37-24 victory over Tennessee.
San Francisco has benefited from possibly the easiest schedule in the NFL over the last 30 days, but now it faces a Colts defense that concedes just 21.6 points per game overall, and which is even better at home. Indianapolis is fantastic against the run as well, allowing just 95.1 yards per game, which ranks sixth, and which doesn't bode well for 49ers' back Christian McCaffrey.
And on the offensive end, Indianapolis averages 28 points per game.
But that was primarily with Daniel Jones under center.
I had a play on the Colts last week in Seattle, and there's no question that the defense looks great right now after holding the high-flying Hawks to just 18 points, especially after what we just saw Seattle do at home this past Thursday vs. the Rams' tough defensive unit.
Rivers was decent, I thought, finishing 18 of 27 for 120 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, and should be better this week with one game under his belt.
The 49ers have gone through plenty of quarterback issues this year as well, and they enter averaging 24.6 points per game, while allowing 20.9.
Brock Purdy was 23 of 30 for 295 yards and three touchdowns last week for San Francisco against an inept Titans defense, which also allowed McCaffrey to rush for 73 yards and a touchdown as well.
Purdy also had 44 rushing yards last week, but again, the Colts specialize in stopping the run, and so I believe San Francisco's offense will be really one-dimensional this week.
But, with upcoming games against Jacksonville and Houston, this essentially becomes a must-win game for the Colts.
Purdy has 1,442 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and despite this being only his second game back, I'm not sure if he's light-years ahead of Rivers at all in this head-to-head matchup.
The run games are comparable as well, but the Colts likely have the slightly better special teams and defense.
And a defense built to stop the 49ers' most potent weapon while on offense.
Long story short guys, I think that each team will be trying to establish the run throughout to alleviate the pressure of their quarterbacks here.
We also have two really above-average defenses going head-to-head.
I think that that team that protects the ball the best and wins the field position and time of possession battles is going to come out on top in this one and because of that, I think a slower pace will lead to a very low-scoring final combined outcome.
Consider the UNDER.
Good luck, NP
Consultant Bio
Veteran handicapper Nick Parsons has been involved in the industry both as one of the World's leading sports prognosticating experts (in every major sport over the course of the last 20 years!), and he's also worked behind the scenes with some of the biggest companies and players in the market as well.
A "contrarian" at heart, Nick has always felt that being flexible with your approach when it comes to handicapping is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid, and long term. Parsons doesn't limit himself to any sort of bet, or style of wagering. If he sees value in a pick, whether it's an underdog or a favorite, then he plays it. His succinct and no "B.S." approach, while also always being fully accountable, is what his growing list of satisfied clients has grown to appreciate the most.
Nick's been in the trenches fighting the books every single day for the last 20 years. He's never once pretended that any part of this industry is "easy." It's not. But you can put his invaluable experience to work for you, as 2023 and 2024 have massive potential for this industry icon!