Tom's NBA Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks +11.0 (-112)

I like the Bucks +11 as a solid play here. The spread feels inflated given the matchup dynamics.
Milwaukee has shown real momentum lately, winning and covering in each of their last three games. They're on a three game winning streak overall, battling through injuries (notably without Giannis) but finding ways to grind out results and keep games competitive.
Orlando, meanwhile, has been frustratingly inconsistent this season. Despite a decent record, their defense has slipped to middle of the pack levels, and the offense has regressed at times amid ongoing injury issues and uneven effort. They've struggled to string together wins—rarely building momentum, with long stretches of alternating results or bigger losses against quality opponents. Home court advantage helps, but this doesn't scream like a blowout setup.
This is the first of a rare back to back between these two teams in Orlando, which could introduce fatigue or adjustment factors, especially for a Bucks squad already showing resilience on the road.
Double digit spreads in NBA games often overprice favorites when the underdog is hot and the home team isn't dominating consistently. The Bucks have the recent form to hang around, keep it within single digits for much of the game, or make a late push. Value lies with Milwaukee getting the points.
Play: Bucks +11

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The PLAY: Brooklyn Nets +4.0 (-108)

The Chicago Bulls are in a rough spot right now, losers of their last four games with no signs of covering spreads consistently in that stretch. Zooming out, they've only managed one win in their last seven (1-6), highlighting a team that's struggling to find any rhythm or defensive consistency.
As road favorites, the Bulls have been particularly unreliable this season—I can't trust them in that spot. Their overall road record is poor, and when favored away from home, they've failed to cover in most cases, often getting exposed against motivated or desperate opponents.
Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets just snapped a funk with a convincing home win over the Washington Wizards (127-113 on Feb 7), showing some offensive pop and swagger at Barclays Center. They're coming in as sizable underdogs, but this feels like a classic spot where the line could move toward the favorite as public money piles on Chicago—similar to patterns we've seen in other recent Bulls matchups.
Given the Bulls current skid, road favorite issues, and the Nets fresh momentum at home, I'm fading Chicago here.
Play: Nets +4.5

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