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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Tom Kim To Win Sony Open +10000

Tom Kim stands out as an intriguing longshot contender at his current odds—far from the betting favorite, but with a compelling case built on elite skills that align perfectly with the demands of precision-based courses.

The young South Korean star has long been renowned for his exceptional driving accuracy and pinpoint control off the tee, allowing him to consistently find fairways and set up ideal approach angles. His iron play ranks among the best on Tour, with outstanding proximity to the hole and strong strokes gained on approach—a critical advantage on shorter, tighter layouts where placement trumps raw power.

This venue's emphasis on accuracy, strategic shot-making, and scoring opportunities on manageable length suits Kim's game exceptionally well. He thrives in environments that reward precision over distance, and his ability to generate birdies on these types of tracks has been a hallmark of his success.

Entering the event fresh, motivated, and with renewed focus after a challenging 2025 season, Kim brings elite talent and a skill set that matches the test better than many in the field. The biggest variable remains his putting—an area he's actively addressed through equipment tweaks and practice. If the flatstick heats up and cooperates (as it has in his best stretches), he has the complete package to go low and contend seriously.

Sure, he's not the top name on the board, but that's precisely what makes this such an exciting "why he can win" story: elite course fit + proven upside + undervalued price = legitimate contender potential. In a season-opener (or early-season event) that rewards ball-striking and composure, Tom Kim at these odds offers real value and plenty of upside. Don't sleep on him—he could absolutely hoist the trophy if everything clicks.

Take Tom Kim To Win Sony Open +10000

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The PLAY: Virginia +3.5 (-110)

I understand the Louisville love—they're a solid team overall, especially at home in the KFC Yum! Center, where they've shown strong performances this season under their current roster and coaching. The Cardinals have bounced back well from any early conference stumbles and bring energy in front of their crowd, often dictating a faster pace that can wear down opponents.

That said, Virginia has been quietly excellent since their lone hiccup against Virginia Tech earlier. The Cavaliers (14-2, 3-1 ACC) are riding a nice win streak, with recent victories coming by comfortable margins. They're ranked, protect the ball well, dominate the glass, and play that classic controlled, low-turnover style that frustrates high-tempo teams.

The betting market has Louisville as 3.5-point home favorites (with a total around 154.5), which feels a bit generous given Virginia's form and defensive discipline. Public money might be leaning toward the Cardinals due to home-court edge and recent momentum, creating favorable splits on the road side.

In what should be a competitive ACC battle, I like the value on the road dog to cover—and potentially steal the outright win. Virginia's poise and rebounding could keep this close or allow them to pull away late.

Take Virginia +3.5

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