The market appears to be giving Los Angeles too much credit for Monday night's 28-6 win over the Giants, creating value with Denver as a home underdog. The Rams are also dealing with a difficult early-season travel and scheduling sequence after opening in Australia, returning home for Monday Night Football, and now traveling to altitude on a short week for another primetime game, while Denver has the rest advantage after playing last Sunday. Los Angeles's biggest personnel concern is Puka Nacua, who missed all of practice and is officially doubtful with hip/groin soreness, making a second consecutive absence likely. That matters considerably because Matthew Stafford has averaged just +0.07 EPA per play without Nacua since 2024, compared with +0.20 with him, while the Rams have averaged only 7.8 yards per target without Nacua versus 10.3 yards per target when he plays.
Davante Adams erupted for 195 yards and two touchdowns against New York, but duplicating that performance becomes much harder against a Denver secondary featuring Pat Surtain II, who has allowed only 20 yards on four targets in his coverage through two games. Stafford’s underlying start has also been less impressive than his performance against the Giants suggests: his 64.2 PFF grade ranks 21st among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, and he has three turnover-worthy plays versus only two big-time throws.
I rated Denver’s defense 1.7 points better than league average entering this season after accounting for its personnel changes, giving the Broncos a meaningful matchup advantage against a potentially Nacua-less receiving corps. Offensively, Denver showed encouraging improvement last week as Bo Nix jumped from 131 passing yards in the opener to 288 yards against Jacksonville, and the Broncos overcame their early mistakes by scoring 17 unanswered points to take control of the game. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has been impactful against man coverage (13th in PFF grade vs. man), and Los Angeles ranks 7th in man coverage rate entering this matchup. The Rams' defense also enters this matchup with personnel concerns, including starting safety Kamren Kinchens, who is listed as doubtful.
Technician’s Corner
My technical database provides strong support for Denver as a short home underdog, with the most compelling angles centered on Sean Payton and the Sunday-night setting:
• Perfect Payton System: Sean Payton is 13-0 ATS (100%) as an underdog/pick’em off a SU/ATS victory when facing an opponent also coming off a SU/ATS victory since 2011;
• Payton as an Underdog Off a Win: Expanding the sample, Payton is 25-7 ATS (78.1%) as an underdog off a win when facing an opponent also off a victory;
• Payton vs. Winning Momentum: Payton is 41-17 ATS (70.7%) as an underdog against an opponent coming off a win;
• September Primetime Home Underdogs: Home underdogs in September primetime games are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) since 1999;
• Sunday Night Home Underdogs: Sunday Night Football home underdogs are 36-22 ATS (62.1%) since 2017, another situational angle pointing directly toward Denver;
• Early-Season Short Underdogs: Underdogs of +4 or fewer in Weeks 1-3 are 283-225 ATS (55.7%) since 2005;
• Playoff-Team Underdog System: Non-division underdogs of +2 or greater that made the playoffs the previous season and have the same or worse current winning percentage than their opponent are 95-57 ATS (62.5%) since 2004;
• Payton in Game 3: Payton owns a 12-5 ATS (70.6%) career record in his team's third game of the season.
The standout signal is the 13-0 ATS Sean Payton system, reinforced rather than isolated by his broader 25-7 and 41-17 ATS underdog profiles. Add Denver's historically favorable role as a September primetime home underdog and Sunday Night Football home underdog, and the technical database provides multiple layers of support for the Broncos. Grab the points with the Denver Broncos as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 27.
