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Falcons +3.5

Atlanta is in a bounce back spot against the Bengals on Sunday as these two teams head to Madrid. It was a pathetic loss by the Falcons last week in Tampa, as they dealt with monsoon conditions and couldn't stop the run game. This team is far better than what they showcased and they take on a Bengals team that has been up and down this year. Cincinnati's defense has been a struggle so far and we saw the Titans torch them last week. Cincinnati continues to battle injuries to key defensive players and they're going to struggle against Penix and Bijan Robinson's rushing attack. The Falcons will continue to wear down the Bengals as this game goes on. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the FALCONS ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. 13 Massive plays loaded for SAT/SUN. A BIG 8× Play Card is up for SAT, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.” 

Cincinnati enters this matchup in a difficult scheduling spot, while Atlanta has an opportunity to rebound from a performance that could make the Bengals look more attractive than they should.

The Bengals beat division rival Baltimore two weeks ago, needed overtime to get past Tennessee last week, and now must travel to Spain. That’s a demanding sequence, but the bigger concern is what comes next: a matchup with Pittsburgh that could carry first-place implications. With a major divisional showdown on deck, this sets up as a potential look-ahead spot for Cincinnati.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off an ugly 16–0 loss to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won without completing a pass, as Baker Mayfield went 0-for-3 and Tampa Bay rushed 56 times for 324 yards in a rainstorm. The Falcons never established an offensive rhythm, but I’m reluctant to treat such an unusual game as the best measure of this team.

The timing matters, too. That performance followed Atlanta’s upset of previously unbeaten San Francisco—a spot that had all the ingredients for a post-upset letdown. Before the Tampa Bay debacle, the Falcons had gone 3–2 over a five-game stretch, with both losses coming by one score. There’s more competitiveness here than last week’s shutout suggests.

The matchup also gives Atlanta a path to a better offensive performance. Cincinnati allowed 158 rushing yards to Tennessee last week and 217 to Miami three games ago. I expect the Falcons to attack that vulnerability, establish their running game, and take pressure off Michael Penix Jr. Sustaining drives on the ground would also help Atlanta control the pace rather than asking its quarterback to carry the offense.

This play comes down to looking beyond the most recent results. Cincinnati escaped with an overtime win, while Atlanta looked dreadful in an unusual, weather-driven game. With the Bengals facing travel, accumulated fatigue, and a significant divisional matchup next week, I’m backing the Falcons to deliver a much sharper effort.

TAKE ATLANTA +3

Take Atlanta – Cincinnati OVER (#451-452)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below = ‘Free Play’ bets for the Bengals – Falcons from Madrid and the Broncos – Panthers from North Carolina, clipped from Friday's 'Wagertalk Today'.  Here’s a brief write-up for Cinci- Atlanta.

Joe Burrow is on fire right now; Cinci’s receiving corps healthy and making big plays every week.  Atlanta just suffered through a monsoon in Tampa last week, but prior to that debacle the Falcons had averaged 32 points a game since Michael Penix took over behind center after missing the first few games.  Don’t expect a quagmire in Spain, but do expect two offenses that are better than the two defenses facing them.  Expect touchdowns in bunches. Take the OVER.

Basic stats ahead of this week's game: The Buccaneers (3-5) are averaging 22.3 points per game (20th in the NFL) & allowing 18.9 points per game (5th in the NFL). The Bears (6-2) are averaging 26.2 points per game (8th in the NFL) & allowing 20.8 points per game (8th in the NFL).

Pick: The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFL and look better after the Jeffery Simmons addition that bolstered their defense. While the Buccaneers have a great defense, the offense has struggled all season with quarterback issues weighing them down. So, expect the Bears to dominate this one at home and easily cover the spread.

Take San Francisco (#468)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Plays for the 49ers - Raiders and the Packers - Patriots games on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Vegas - San Francisco game.

The 49ers are coming off a bad, four turnovers defeat in Atlanta before their bye week — there’s some urgency for Kyle Shanahan’s squad off that debacle.  San Fran also enjoys a significant rest edge compared to Las Vegas.  Teams with extra rest have been $$ in the NFL this year, an emerging trend worth riding here.  Las Vegas isn’t getting many stops these days — a dismal defensive team in recent weeks — and they’re coming off a very satisfying win to snap a four game skid.  Expect a new skid to start here in a game the Niners are primed to win by margin!  Take the 49ers.

This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests. Play Cowboys (Team Total) Over