Free NHL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Basic stats ahead of tonight's game: The Oilers (2-0-1) average 5.67 goals per game (2nd in the NHL) & allow 4.67 goals per game (28th in the NHL). The Ducks (2-0) average 3.50 goals per game (10th in the NHL) & allow 2.50 goals per game (12th in the NHL).

Pick: The Oilers are coming off a surprisingly low-scoring game where they only scored three goals, but they have one of the best offenses in the NHL. Likewise, the Ducks have plenty of firepower on offense and have seven goals in their first two games. With this in mind, expect a high-scoring game from the opening puck drop.

There is independent support for the Under, including multiple expert positions on this matchup, and the personnel situation provides a legitimate fundamental argument.

Florida is without Aleksander Barkov, removing one of the league's premier two-way centers. The Panthers have scored only six goals through three games, with all three games requiring overtime. Los Angeles is missing Kevin Fiala, another significant offensive loss.

Florida's early underlying defensive numbers have also been better than its record might suggest. That matters more to us than simply looking at the Panthers' 1-0-2 start.

The hesitation is the number. At 5.5, there is very little room for variance, an empty-net goal or overtime. That's enough to keep this below premium status.

FREE PLAY: UNDER 5.5 FLORIDA/LOS ANGELES
Play to: -120

Marc David's NHL Free Pick

We really like favorite in this matchup. Vegas (2-1-0) has looked like the better team in all three of their games, even the one they lost. They handled Chicago 5-2, outshot Anaheim 30-20 in a 4-3 loss where they scored three times in the third, then went into Vancouver and won 3-2. With Eichel, Marner, Stone and Hertl up front, they are rolling two legitimate scoring lines, and the defense in front of Adin Hill has allowed just 20 shots in each of the last two games.

Seattle (2-1-0) has the same record, but both of their wins came against a Calgary team that is 0-3, by identical 6-1 scores. In their one game against a contender, they managed 20 shots and no even-strength goals in a 3-1 loss at Edmonton.

Vegas is catching a Seattle team whose early numbers are inflated by the schedule. We'll lay the price with the better team.

This is a FREE PLAY on VEGAS ML.

The Golden Knights offer value as a road favorite against a Kraken team whose early statistical profile has been heavily influenced by two 6-1 victories over Calgary. Seattle is averaging 4.33 goals while allowing only 1.67 per game, but its only matchup outside of Calgary resulted in a 3-1 loss to Edmonton, suggesting those headline numbers deserve some skepticism. Joey Daccord has also been exceptional with a 1.00 GAA and .966 save percentage, numbers that will be difficult to sustain against a Vegas offense averaging 3.67 goals with a 27.3% power-play conversion rate. The Golden Knights are coming off a solid 3-2 victory over Vancouver in which they controlled the shot count 28-20, while Jack Eichel has already accumulated six points with one goal and five assists. Vegas has won eight of its last nine games against Western Conference opponents, while Seattle has lost four consecutive evening affairs following a victory and failed to cover 13 of its last 15 as an underdog against Western Conference competition.

The technical database reinforces the fundamental case, as conference road favorites priced below -250 are 3185-2,175 (59.4%) since 2003, generating +173.8 units. More specifically, road favorites of -140 or greater facing teams coming off a victory have gone 837-461 (64.5%) since 2005. Vegas also qualifies for a system involving road favorites of -175 or less coming off a win, provided they are averaging more shots on goal than their opponent. These teams have been a profitable 600-395 (60.3%) since 2004, producing +75.8 units and a 5.7% ROI. Moreover, .501-or-better conference road favorites below -200 facing opponents playing their third game in four days have gone 378-286 (56.9%), generating +95.9 units and a 12.1% ROI. Perhaps most compelling is the divisional component, as Pacific Division home underdogs have won only 40.8% of qualifying games against conference opponents since 2004. With Seattle's early numbers inflated by two blowouts of Calgary, Vegas possessing the stronger established offensive profile and multiple profitable systems pointing toward the road favorite, take the Golden Knights as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, October 6.

Florida has opened the season with 3 straight overtime games winning one and losing the other 2. Meanwhile you have a Los Angeles club that is looking for their first win of the season as they have started 0-1-1. Better all around talent on this Panther squad, and I look for them to take out the Kings in regulation this evening. Play Florida