The market may overreact to Indiana’s close call with Nebraska, but that result can be explained by situational context. Indiana may have been caught in a look-ahead spot with Ohio State looming, making last week’s performance less indicative of its overall quality.
Indiana has been strong on both sides of the ball. Defensively, only one opponent has scored more than 17 points against the Hoosiers. Offensively, Indiana is balanced enough to qualify as a “200 club” team, averaging 221 rushing yards per game at 6.1 yards per carry and 241 passing yards per game at 10.6 yards per attempt.
Ball security is another key advantage: Indiana has turned the ball over only once all season. That discipline gives the Hoosiers a better chance to control a high-profile matchup and avoid giving Ohio State short fields or momentum-changing opportunities.
Ohio State has motivation after its Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana, but revenge alone may not outweigh Indiana’s broader profile. Ohio State already lost at Texas earlier this season, and the argument here is that Indiana is the more complete team than the Texas squad that beat the Buckeyes.
Indiana holds the edge in most matchup areas, while Ohio State’s main intangible is revenge. With a well-rounded offense, a reliable defense, and elite turnover discipline, Indiana is positioned to stay with—or beat—the Buckeyes.
Projected score: Indiana 30, Ohio State 24.
